Henry Hazlitt, sticking it to Keynes, 1959 style

I’m only 24 pages in to Hazlitt’s book, The Failure of the “New Economics”: An Analysis of Keynesian Fallacies, and already I’ve come across some juicy quotes criticizing price levels and macro-economics.

In the same way, “the general levelof wages,” like “the general level of prices” (both of which concepts are central to Keynes’s thought), has no existence in reality. It is a statistician’s construct, a mathematical average which has a limited value in simplifying certain problems. But it simplifies away some of the chief dynamic problems in economics. –p.24

The word “level” can give rise to an additional false assumption–that prices and wagse rise or fall evenly or uniformly. It is precisely their failure to do so that creates most of the problems of inflation or deflation. It is also the failure of specific prices or wages to rise or fall as much as the average that permits the continuous structural changes in production and in the labor force necessary for contrinuous economic efficiency and progress.  –p.25

Keynes is constantly falling into this fallacy of averages or aggregates. His “aggregate” or “macro-economics” is not a step in advance; it is a retrograde step which conceals real relationships and real causation and leads him to erect an elaborate structure of fictitious and relationships and fictitious causation. –p.28

Breast Cancer is Overrated

Gender cancer is a hot topic these days with Ms. Komen getting her name and ‘trademark’ pink ribbon on everything including my breakfast cereal box (I like dehydrated strawberries) .

Particular cancers may need increased awareness for many reasons. Let’s start with some simple, factual, medical ways of comparing cancers:

• Most commonly diagnosed cancer
• Leading cause of cancer death

According to the CDC’s website, in 2004, breast cancer was the “most commonly diagnosed” cancer among women, with an incidence of 117.7 per 100,000 persons (same rate used elsewhere). It is not the leading cause of cancer death among women (24.4). The leading cause of cancer death for both men and women is lung cancer, but Americans aren’t putting gray, ashy ribbons on their cars for chain-smoking, blue-collar workers. They’ve morally abdicated any claim to empathy.

Prostate cancer wins 1st place in the competition for most diagnosed cancer (145.3), surpassing breast cancer by 23.4%. Prostate cancer edges out breast cancer by 4.1% in terms of cancer deaths. Cancers that affect both genders affect men more grievously than do gender-specific cancers. Lung cancer causes 71.9% more cancer deaths in men than in women; and colo-rectal cancer causes 42.1% more cancer deaths.

This leaves us with only two reasonable conclusions for why breast cancer gets so much attention. (1) Everybody loves breasts (2) Feminism/misandry.

Hayek: Planning and Democracy

From The Road to Serfdom by FA Hayek, Chapter 5. Planning and Democracy

We can rely on voluntary agreement to guide the action of the state only so long as it is confined to sphere where agreement exists. – p.68

Democratic government has worked successfully where, and so long as, the functions of government were, by a widely accepted creed, restricted to fields where agreement among a majority could be achieved by free discussion and it is the great merit of the liberal creed that it reduced the range of subjects on which agreement was necessary to one on which it was likely to exist in a society of free men. – p.77

The fashionable concentration on democracy as the main value threatened is not without danger. It is largely responsible for the misleading and unfounded belief that, so long as the ultimate source of power is the will of the majority, the power cannot be arbitrary. The false assurance which many people derive from this belief is an important cause of the general unawareness of the dangers which we face. There is no justification for the belief that, so long as power is conferred by democratic procedure, it cannot be arbitrary; the contrast suggested by this statement is altogether false: it is not the source but the limitation of power which prevents it from being arbitrary. Democratic control may prevent power from becoming arbitrary, but it does not do so by its mere existence. If democracy resolves on a task which necessarily involves the use of power which cannot be guided by fixed rules, it must become arbitary power. – p.79

Nothing new under the sun

I was listening to Girl Talk Radio this evening, and heard “The Crew” by Fdel. I noticed a sample that I instantly recognized from Fatboy Slim’s song “Gangster Tripping” (It’s at about 1′40″ in to the song, and probably elsewhere – sort of sounds like a nasal robot saying ‘wah-wah’, but in a higher pitch). I recognize samples all the time, like “Record Creakin” by DJ Venom containing a sample from Eminem’s “Under the Influence” (at 2′09″).

Movies reuse music samples too – in Over The Hedge, you can hear the Millennium Falcon’s hyperdrive engine failing after the Depelter Turbo fires near the end of the film. In Wall•E, when the cute robot fully recharges, the sound of a Mac booting up plays. My friend and I laughed out loud in the theater at this point – but we laughed alone. I assert it’s because most people didn’t appreciate that Steve Jobs (Apple’s current CEO) bought Pixar (then The Graphics Group) from George Lucas at a critical time and probably saving it from obscurity, while Steve’s other minor business endeavor produced computers that use the chime at boot up.

Even documentaries are not above the practice. The BBC’s recent attempt to capitalize on “Planet Earth”, called “Earth: The Biography”, shamelessly reuses a stock audio clip of wind whistling over and over and over again. The narrator’s accent is also repugnant.

Help Desk Hero

Now that “Guitar Hero” has made “* hero” ubiquitous (in the same manner as the iMac:i*), I’d like to suggest a new role playing game:

In HDH, players would buy products that fail in unique and frustrating ways. Through playing the game, you would go through the process of finding technical support — resulting in either a free, partially free, or repair at cost. Players would begin with a few basic abilities, with different durations and cool downs. Over time, players improve on their abilities such as reaching an actual human customer service agent, or reducing the time it takes to troubleshoot and define the nature of your product’s failure. Ideally suited to the RPG genre, it relies on chance and the passing of time. Sample beginning abilities:

• find receipt
• check warranty card
• find serial number
• find support telephone number

‘Find receipt’ might take anywhere between five minutes and several hours -forcing the player to use their follow up ability, ‘clean apartment’, or ‘file old receipts’. There are so many possible outcomes, and players would juggle simultaneously failing products – HDH is bound to provide hours of entertainment. The best part is, the game draws from players’ real life technical support experiences.

Potential Game Scenarios

• You reach a live customer service agent whose English you understand – but they dislike your tone of voice and hang up – forcing you to call back until you get a different agent or the hours of business force you do give up seeking technical support on that particular product for the day.
• You randomly have to choose between calling technical support and searching Google/Internet forums for people with a similar issue. Initially, searching forums would promise faster results, but eventually you realize you can’t define the problem well enough and are forced to the manufacturer’s website to find the support telephone number.

I was ‘inspired’ to invent this game because I often seem to have the worst luck with failing consumer products. My first 80GB PS3 came with a graphical glitch that was not well documented (on the Internet) and took hours of troubleshooting to determine that the problem was with the console and not its environment. Today, my Xbox 360 sported a single, flashing red light and displayed “E 76″ on-screen. I did my due-diligence and thought for sure that a console manufactured in February 2008 made it past the absurd quality issues with earlier production runs. I spent 27 minutes on the phone with an Indian gentleman, who insisted upon using my first name frequently. He was polite and asked/said everything a good help desk person should say, although I had to focus a little harder than usual to understand his English. I was especially appreciative when he gave what sounded like a legitimate, non-western name.

Perhaps what I resent the most is when plebian consumers are forced to deal with the manufacturer’s help desks – even when we pay a brick-and-mortar premium. Gamestop is under a quarter mile from my apartment, why can’t Microsoft just contract with them to process RMAs? I want a new one now, not a month from now. I kept it in a well-ventilated area, it’s not my fault the goddamn thing died. A free month of Xbox Live Gold does not make up for lost time playing single-player games.

Chinese Internet Boom Story from Drudge

From Yahoo, via Drudge Report, China says has more people surfing the Web than US. (AP Business Writer)

“China’s booming Internet population has surpassed the United States to become the world’s biggest, with 253 million people online despite government controls on Web use, according to government data reported Friday.”

Aww, did the “China Internet Network Information Center” (CINNC) forget that, on average, the US browser has almost 13 times the purchasing-power-parity-adjusted gross domestic income per capita? Shame on serious new outlets for posting obvious public relations pieces. It’s not as if the credibility of Chinese government statistics has been called in to question before.

Does anyone have at least the 3 years of recent memory it would require to recall this story: China imposes online gaming curbs?

I’ve got an AP story for you…

Chinese Fluff Piece Trusted Unconditionally

Porsche Design Carrera 4 – Try Harder

The new Design Carrera 4’s rear lights attracted me on a recent visit to the Porsche USA website. I started the Web Special and browsed the gallery, eventually watching a video where the narrator described its merits, here’s the painful transcript:

“The rear end of 911 all wheel drive models is 44 mm wider. The rear track width, 14mm wider. The new rear [?] reflector trim visually connects the taillights and emphasizes the unique design feature of the wider body. Exclusive to the all wheel drive models are the titanium colored painted trim surround and slats of the side air intakes at the front. The trim on the underbody rear paneling and the side skirts are contrasted in black.”

So, Porsche, if I understand you correctly, its merits are a slight increase in rear width, connecting the taillights (the way you should have continued doing all along) and tiny, painted plastic bits? Mmmm…might want to work on the awkwardly worded, rushed-through-translation sales pitch. You had something special with the Cayman S Design Edition 1, don’t cheapen the value of limited production “design” models.

P.S. “unique design feature of the wider body”?!? How many German engineers labored tirelessly to bring us this recent breakthrough in teutonic engineering? I mean it’s not like the burgeoning market for Porsche body kits was an easy target. *cough cough*

Mac Mini No Longer On Display In Oak Brook Apple Store

I visited my local Apple store with a friend. He wanted the anti-glare film for his iPhone 3G and a car charger. I looked around for the Mac Mini, but didn’t see it. There has been some speculation on what Apple will do with their cheapest fully-featured computer. (See Mac Mini and other Apple products on MacRumor’s Buyer’s Guide) Some think Apple will merge the Apple TV and Mac Mini. Others mention it only in reference to the low cost of Psystar’s Mac clones. (Does anybody else remember UMAX?) Personally, I hope they update it so I can use it as a HTPC with a wireless keyboard. Since my primary (PC – custom built) desktop is in my bedroom, I desperately need a visual interface (ideally, Front Row) scaled for my Sharp Aquos for extended music playback – but I need it to be more robust than the Apple TV’s current iteration.

Inflation Is A Progressive Tax

The example that follows merely serves to illustrate the importance of a stable currency. I agree with Milton Friedman, who said (in A Monetary History of the United States 1867 – 1960) that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”, and define inflation as an increase in the money supply that exceeds the growth in economic output. Only in very recent history have human societies not been on a bimetallic standard – for which Friedman argues primarily because changes in the supply of two precious metals is almost always more stable than the supply of one alone. (Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History)

In a society with a progressive tax structure, inflation will result in a nominal and real increase in the effective tax rate, providing a bias towards inflationary monetary policy.

Ex: Ten people make the following incomes in year one (50, 50, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 150, 150). There are two tax rates. Income 100 or under is taxed at 10%, income over 100 is taxed at 15%. This constitutes a progressive tax system. The next year, the money supply is increased by 100 (10%) in proportion to income in year one. Incomes in year two are (55, 55, 110, 110, 110, 110, 110, 110, 165, 165). The nominal taxes collected in both years are 115 and 159.5, respectively. Adjusting for inflation (159.5 / (1.00 + 0.10) ), the real value of taxes collected in year two is 145. Therefore, this progressive tax structure results in an effective tax rate that is 3.0% higher when the money supply is increased by 10%.