Fun with math, facts out of context, and the Chevy Volt

CNN Money: Chevy Volt to get 230 mpg rating

When gasoline is providing the power, the Volt might get as much as 50 mpg.

So what’s the lower bound at wide open throttle on a hill in Seattle?

So let’s say the car is driven 50 miles in a day.

OK

For the first 40 miles, no gas is used and during the last 10 miles, 0.2 gallons are used. That’s the equivalent of 250 miles per gallon.

Well obviously it didn’t use any fuel on the first 40 miles. I don’t need you to tell me that dividing a bigger number by a fraction will result in a larger number. Here’s some more fun mpg maths:

But, if the driver continues on to 80 miles, total fuel economy would drop to about 100 mpg. And if the driver goes 300 miles, the fuel economy would be just 62.5 mpg.

So, given these average miles per gallon when we assume no gallons are consumed in the first 40 miles, here’s a list of the marginal mileage:

0.2 gallons per 10 miles when driven 50 miles (50 mpg)
0.8 gallons per 30 miles when driven 80 miles (37.5 mpg)
4.8 gallons per 260 miles when driven 300 miles (54.2 mpg ?)

The company said it estimates it will need 8 kilowatt hours for the recharge necessary to travel 40 miles. That should cost a total of about 40 cents at off-peak electricity rates in Detroit, Henderson said. National figures from the Department of Energy suggest most consumers would pay more than that, probably around 88 cents per recharge.

One might ask, will off-peak rates remain constant?

Suppose average Joe, drives 12,000 or 15,000 miles per year.

(This may be a high or low estimate for Volt buyers. USA Today reported on a study of 359,309 vehicles over a two-year period by Quality Planning showing that hybrid owners “drove an average of 10,500 miles a year when not commuting“. It is possible that Volt buyers may alter their driving habits because of the high mpg ratings.)

Let’s say Joe always uses the battery and never needs the generator. Joe recharges his car 300 or 375 (more than once a day, oy!) times a year, pulling down 8 kWh from the grid each time. Sales estimates, courtesy of Wikipedia, are 10,000 units in year 1 and 60,000 units in year 2.

In year 1, Joe and his Volt-driving buddies are pulling down between 27 and 30 gWh from the grid, additional electrical demand previously met by a different infrastructure. Now in year 2, there are 70,000 units in operation pulling down between 168 and 210 gWh hours from the grid at night. According to the CIA World Factbook, US electrical consumption was 3,892,000 gWh in 2007. So by the second year with nothing but Chevy Volts driving at current yearly averages, Joe and his friends have increased the demand for electricity by around 0.005%, less than a one-hundredth of a percent. It would take between 13 and 16 million Volt drivers to increase electrical demand by 1%. Is it enough to affect “off-peak” electricity prices – I can’t say, but there are the numbers.

The part where I calculate true mpg on those first 40 miles

I tried for the life of me to find a simple ComEd rate sheet, but the only one I came across was almost 400 pages. Glancing at my latest electricity bill, I’m paying $0.12257 per kWh. If 8 kWh get me 40 miles, that’s $0.981 per 40 miles, or $0.0245 per mile. My S2000 gets 23.5 mpg city and Shell Premium Unleaded is about $2.999/gallon, so I’d use 1.70 gallons per 40 miles at a total cost of $5.09 – or about $0.127 per mile. That’s about 5.18 times more efficient than my car, giving the Volt an equivalent 122 mpg over the first 40 miles. Not bad, but it’s still apples to oranges when you consider vehicle cost, performance, driving habits, etc.

Concluding remarks

Henderson conceded the cost of building a Volt will be expensive, about $40,000 per vehicle. But he said the vehicle will qualify for a $7,500 tax credit, which will reduce the vehicle cost by that amount for consumers.

How valuable that tax credit is depends on your income level, but it’s clear that you are trading higher operating costs for a higher up-front cost. This is not a new concept, and is essential to capitalism. (See former note about self checkout registers replacing grocery store clerks.) Assuming all of that higher initial cost can’t be remedied through volume and other cost savings, the difference in cost between the Volt and any other ‘comparable’ vehicle would need to be allocated over the total mileage you expect to drive. Those sorts of calculations are usually too individual and subjective for me to attempt it here; however, I did that very thing when I bought my first car.

Nothing new under the sun

I was listening to Girl Talk Radio this evening, and heard “The Crew” by Fdel. I noticed a sample that I instantly recognized from Fatboy Slim’s song “Gangster Tripping” (It’s at about 1′40″ in to the song, and probably elsewhere – sort of sounds like a nasal robot saying ‘wah-wah’, but in a higher pitch). I recognize samples all the time, like “Record Creakin” by DJ Venom containing a sample from Eminem’s “Under the Influence” (at 2′09″).

Movies reuse music samples too – in Over The Hedge, you can hear the Millennium Falcon’s hyperdrive engine failing after the Depelter Turbo fires near the end of the film. In Wall•E, when the cute robot fully recharges, the sound of a Mac booting up plays. My friend and I laughed out loud in the theater at this point – but we laughed alone. I assert it’s because most people didn’t appreciate that Steve Jobs (Apple’s current CEO) bought Pixar (then The Graphics Group) from George Lucas at a critical time and probably saving it from obscurity, while Steve’s other minor business endeavor produced computers that use the chime at boot up.

Even documentaries are not above the practice. The BBC’s recent attempt to capitalize on “Planet Earth”, called “Earth: The Biography”, shamelessly reuses a stock audio clip of wind whistling over and over and over again. The narrator’s accent is also repugnant.

Help Desk Hero

Now that “Guitar Hero” has made “* hero” ubiquitous (in the same manner as the iMac:i*), I’d like to suggest a new role playing game:

In HDH, players would buy products that fail in unique and frustrating ways. Through playing the game, you would go through the process of finding technical support — resulting in either a free, partially free, or repair at cost. Players would begin with a few basic abilities, with different durations and cool downs. Over time, players improve on their abilities such as reaching an actual human customer service agent, or reducing the time it takes to troubleshoot and define the nature of your product’s failure. Ideally suited to the RPG genre, it relies on chance and the passing of time. Sample beginning abilities:

• find receipt
• check warranty card
• find serial number
• find support telephone number

‘Find receipt’ might take anywhere between five minutes and several hours -forcing the player to use their follow up ability, ‘clean apartment’, or ‘file old receipts’. There are so many possible outcomes, and players would juggle simultaneously failing products – HDH is bound to provide hours of entertainment. The best part is, the game draws from players’ real life technical support experiences.

Potential Game Scenarios

• You reach a live customer service agent whose English you understand – but they dislike your tone of voice and hang up – forcing you to call back until you get a different agent or the hours of business force you do give up seeking technical support on that particular product for the day.
• You randomly have to choose between calling technical support and searching Google/Internet forums for people with a similar issue. Initially, searching forums would promise faster results, but eventually you realize you can’t define the problem well enough and are forced to the manufacturer’s website to find the support telephone number.

I was ‘inspired’ to invent this game because I often seem to have the worst luck with failing consumer products. My first 80GB PS3 came with a graphical glitch that was not well documented (on the Internet) and took hours of troubleshooting to determine that the problem was with the console and not its environment. Today, my Xbox 360 sported a single, flashing red light and displayed “E 76″ on-screen. I did my due-diligence and thought for sure that a console manufactured in February 2008 made it past the absurd quality issues with earlier production runs. I spent 27 minutes on the phone with an Indian gentleman, who insisted upon using my first name frequently. He was polite and asked/said everything a good help desk person should say, although I had to focus a little harder than usual to understand his English. I was especially appreciative when he gave what sounded like a legitimate, non-western name.

Perhaps what I resent the most is when plebian consumers are forced to deal with the manufacturer’s help desks – even when we pay a brick-and-mortar premium. Gamestop is under a quarter mile from my apartment, why can’t Microsoft just contract with them to process RMAs? I want a new one now, not a month from now. I kept it in a well-ventilated area, it’s not my fault the goddamn thing died. A free month of Xbox Live Gold does not make up for lost time playing single-player games.

Porsche Design Carrera 4 – Try Harder

The new Design Carrera 4’s rear lights attracted me on a recent visit to the Porsche USA website. I started the Web Special and browsed the gallery, eventually watching a video where the narrator described its merits, here’s the painful transcript:

“The rear end of 911 all wheel drive models is 44 mm wider. The rear track width, 14mm wider. The new rear [?] reflector trim visually connects the taillights and emphasizes the unique design feature of the wider body. Exclusive to the all wheel drive models are the titanium colored painted trim surround and slats of the side air intakes at the front. The trim on the underbody rear paneling and the side skirts are contrasted in black.”

So, Porsche, if I understand you correctly, its merits are a slight increase in rear width, connecting the taillights (the way you should have continued doing all along) and tiny, painted plastic bits? Mmmm…might want to work on the awkwardly worded, rushed-through-translation sales pitch. You had something special with the Cayman S Design Edition 1, don’t cheapen the value of limited production “design” models.

P.S. “unique design feature of the wider body”?!? How many German engineers labored tirelessly to bring us this recent breakthrough in teutonic engineering? I mean it’s not like the burgeoning market for Porsche body kits was an easy target. *cough cough*

Mac Mini No Longer On Display In Oak Brook Apple Store

I visited my local Apple store with a friend. He wanted the anti-glare film for his iPhone 3G and a car charger. I looked around for the Mac Mini, but didn’t see it. There has been some speculation on what Apple will do with their cheapest fully-featured computer. (See Mac Mini and other Apple products on MacRumor’s Buyer’s Guide) Some think Apple will merge the Apple TV and Mac Mini. Others mention it only in reference to the low cost of Psystar’s Mac clones. (Does anybody else remember UMAX?) Personally, I hope they update it so I can use it as a HTPC with a wireless keyboard. Since my primary (PC – custom built) desktop is in my bedroom, I desperately need a visual interface (ideally, Front Row) scaled for my Sharp Aquos for extended music playback – but I need it to be more robust than the Apple TV’s current iteration.

Life-Cycle Music Consumption Theory

• 13 – Radio, MTV
• 14 – Napster
• 15 – Kazaa Lite
• 16 – 192 kbps MP3
• 20 – bittorrent
• 22 – 320 kbps MP3
• 23 – Apple Lossless

…in short, I am now legitimately purchasing compact discs and ripping them to a music server in Apple Lossless format. I hope the music industry will continue producing CDs. I bought some CDs through Amazon Marketplace in the past, but now prefer Second Spin. Unless a recording is very rare, I’ll only pay between $5 and $10 for it.

Mobile Phone Hell

I have been part of my parent’s T-Mobile family plan since 2003. In February 2006, I sent my phone (a Motorola T721) to my mother, and purchased a Samsung SGH-D600 (on eBay, unlocked, with O2 firmware). Sadly, it’s beginning to show signs of aging and needs replacement. Meanwhile, my parents have upgraded their phones, extending our service contract(s) each time.

Today, I called T-Mobile (611) and spoke with a customer service representative about contract duration, termination fees, and pro-ration. He politely informed me of the following:

• Each phone line on a family plan is its own contract
• T-Mobile offers no pro-ration of termination fees
• The early termination fee is $200 per line

Only 1 out of 3 family plan lines has an expired contract. The customer service rep did his dutiful sales work and mentioned how steeply he could discount a T-Mobile PDA phone, after admitting that he personally wants an iPhone.

I would like to switch to AT&T because they offer the iPhone, and I can save 22% on their voice plans through my corporate rate. So this afternoon I went to the local AT&T store and asked them how they could accommodate someone with the following desires:

• 1 family plan
• 3 lines
• 1 iPhone
• 1 data package for iPhone
• Corporate discount on voice service
• 2 free or cheap voice-only phones (for parents)

Unfortunately, they won’t discount the monthly plan further and can’t buy out my contract or discount the iPhone. Our family plan has probably netted out to $110 a month since June of 2003. That’s about $7,000. From that, one can deduct the cost of 2-3 very cheap voice-only phones for my parents. Keep in mind I’ve been using my own (unsupported) phone, despite the fact that the service rate is not discounted. They did not subsidize the cost of my phone – I acquired it on the free market.

It concerns me that AT&T does not value our business at $400 (a nominal 5.7% profit margin). I would be willing to pay for the $199 iPhone myself. But I’m sure as hell not going to pay $600 ($400 in early termination fees and $199 for the iPhone).

Gee Pee Ess And Garmin Portfolio

Garmin product portfolio managers are idiots, half of the features are useless or gimmicks at best. There are almost 36 unique models available for cars! And if you’re looking for one specific feature, there’s no way to narrow the list down. (This kind of advanced search is a must, not only for etailers, but for manufacturers as well – ex: Samsung has a nice one for its TVs.)

Series numbers mean nothing regarding critical features. I don’t believe the “auto-sort multiple destinations” feature is available on any model below the 710. However, you have to move up to the 750 to get the “speaks street names” feature once you’re in the “7″ series (despite the fact that models in the 3 and 6 series have that feature). The auto-sort feature may be useful to you, if you want to type in several ‘waypoints’ and have it prioritize them by closest-first. Otherwise they almost all support the addition of up to 500 waypoints (addresses), but the order in which you add them determines their order in your commute.

In general I think the GPS market is obscenely overpriced and ought to plummet precipitously in cost as mobile phones costing less than GPS-only devices flood the market with mapping capabilities only limited by developer potential. As people have mentioned surrounding iPhone application development, ‘location data’ is now commodity information upon which new value can be built. Other entrants, like the Dash, promise the benefits that GPS should always have had. Essentially, it is a multi-spectrum GPS-aware device that produces and receives real-time traffic data – but requires a subscription and costs $400 $308. I’m not suggesting you buy it, I only mention it to support my belief that traditional GPS makers ought to be in a strategic nightmare.

Tiger Direct also sells GPS units and offers many refurbished.

Wireless And Apple Pricing Rant

AT&T announced today that the iPhone will be available without contract for an extra $400. Month-by-month customers won’t be granted the right to take their phone to another network, nor will the service plan be reduced in price. (See it in the Seattle PI)

At least one of the following must be true:

1. Customers that sign contracts are generally more lucrative
2. AT&T needs cash
3. Commitment is too cool for Apple fanboys

Who at T-Mobile thinks the Motorola RAZR2 is worth $199 after a contract-subsidy of $170? Seriously, who thinks I’m going to stick around and pay between $199 and $369 for anything other than an iPhone? Anyone other than AT&T really needs to rethink their handset pricing. That means you too Sprint! Why would I buy a Taiwanese touch phone from $299 to $549 (Mogul) when college students everywhere have made it clear that Apple’s “Designed by Apple in California” + OS X is worth so much? (A MacBook Pro 15″ is worth up to twice the cost of a PC with similar internals.)

On that note, where does Apple get the balls to charge only $140 less for a refurbished MacBook Pro than a new one? At my reduced, corporate whore pricing through Apple’s website, a new MacBook Pro 15″ 2.4GHz is $1,839, a refurb’ed unit is $1,699. With nVidia releasing new models yearly (albeit Apple’s uptake of these is more limited), and Intel replacing the front side bus (FSB) with QuickPath Interconnect, featuring an integrated memory controller (yes, like AMD) and reintroducing “simultaneously multi-threading” (AMD again), isn’t there a better deal to be had?

Furthermore, when the hell is the consumer PC market going to move towards EFI? Intel invented the damn specifications and BIOS has been around since forever.